Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2652…01e5 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$18
sports 10% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 71% 65% -10.8%
≤30d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 71% 65% -10.8%
≤90d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 71% 65% -10.8%
all 17 +4.5% -5.4% 71% 65% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 65% -10.8%
10% -14.5% 53% -19.4%
15% -22.7% 41% -27.1%
20% -30.3% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$45 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $61 +$18 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$77 +152%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$11 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$20 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$16 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $79 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $83 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $81 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $47 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 38h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records