Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x264e…a41a world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-1%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate56%31W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$78
other 24% −$21
crypto 16% +$45
politics 13% −$10
tech 10% +$1
economics 9% −$3
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 75% 0% -9.7%
all 55 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -10.6%
10% -18.3% 2% -19.1%
15% -26.2% 2% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage248d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 14 $140 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 24 $140 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? May 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri Apr 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? Apr 10 $100 −$12 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 22 $100 −$1 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Mar 11 $200 −$1 -0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 02 $100 −$13 -13%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$47 +93%
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 18 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 11 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $100 −$2 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Jan 31 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 29 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 22 $100 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 14 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 11 $100 $0 +0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 07 $100 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $100 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election? Jan 01 $100 +$1 +1%
US recession in 2025? Dec 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Dec 29 $100 −$3 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Dec 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic p Dec 22 $86 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $140 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $140 28h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $140 22d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $140 22d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $140 29d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $140 29d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $140 32d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 57d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $102 57d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 63d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri BUY Yes 98¢ $100 66d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 66d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 78d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 78d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 85d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $99 85d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 89d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 89d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 92d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $100 92d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $100 96d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day SELL No 99¢ $100 96d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $100 98d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 SELL Yes 98¢ $100 98d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 98¢ $100 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 95¢ $100 104d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 76¢ $87 104d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.93 · official $139.93 (match) · 113 history records