Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x264c…6323 crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,851 (-25%) realized −$2,850 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%120W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,969
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.9% -14.0% 68% 42% -9.6%
≤30d 49 -10.3% -18.8% 61% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 209 -17.6% -25.5% 57% 35% -26.6%
all 210 -18.0% -25.8% 57% 35% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 35% -33.0%
10% -32.9% 20% -39.4%
15% -39.4% 14% -45.3%
20% -45.3% 7% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$48 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$2,850
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses120 / 90
Open positions2
Markets (closed)210 / 212
History coverage222d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$23 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $85 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 30 $21 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.10 · official $14.10 (match) · 2272 history records