Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x264c…baca
finance · 178 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
+$58,137 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,274 · open +$3,729
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48,063
Realized+$15,274
Unrealized+$3,729
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses81 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions35
Markets (closed)148 / 178
History coverage58d
Avg bet$3,622
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 35 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$17,855
14 days−$7,094
30 days−$9,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 70¢ 80¢ $4,879 $5,507 +$628 (+13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $4,800 $4,898 +$98 (+2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 85¢ 92¢ $4,232 $4,625 +$392 (+9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $4,871 $3,919 −$952 (-20%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 35¢ 58¢ $2,175 $3,636 +$1,461 (+67%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $2,100 $2,715 +$615 (+29%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 60¢ 78¢ $1,968 $2,558 +$590 (+30%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 82¢ 84¢ $2,462 $2,535 +$73 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 58¢ 72¢ $1,872 $2,304 +$432 (+23%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,976 $1,990 +$14 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $1,780 $1,890 +$110 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $1,710 $1,810 +$100 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $1,520 $1,810 +$290 (+19%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1,710 $1,710 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 39¢ $1,252 $1,170 −$82 (-7%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $815 $875 +$60 (+7%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $780 $835 +$55 (+7%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 77¢ $770 $770 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $662 $696 +$34 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $700 $665 −$35 (-5%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $269 $281 +$11 (+4%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $407 $221 −$187 (-46%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $161 $166 +$4 (+3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 71¢ $132 $136 +$4 (+3%)
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 3¢ 12¢ $29 $121 +$92 (+316%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $208 −$116 -56%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$29 +36%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 10 $141 −$109 -78%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $33,844 −$243 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2,230 +$236 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $242 +$133 +55%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 09 $551 −$401 -73%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,205 +$225 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $647 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27? Jun 07 $3,930 +$563 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12? Jun 07 $107 −$52 -49%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? Jun 07 $1,833 −$1,239 -68%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 07 $493 −$135 -27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15? Jun 07 $213 −$213 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 28? Jun 07 $160 −$158 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 26? Jun 07 $279 −$251 -90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? Jun 07 $113 −$17 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22? Jun 07 $258 −$258 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 07 $487 −$487 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? Jun 07 $1,077 +$1,110 +103%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? Jun 07 $133 −$133 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Jun 07 $14,979 −$5,605 -37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 07 $2,230 −$1,146 -51%
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27? Jun 07 $202 −$78 -38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? Jun 07 $659 −$137 -21%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 07 $2,583 −$2,443 -95%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? Jun 07 $86 −$86 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 07 $6,092 −$5,712 -94%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? Jun 07 $1,405 −$1,405 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $166 +$47 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $487 +$513 +105%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$17 +78%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $70 +$10 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 03 $490 −$490 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 02 $551 +$358 +65%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 2? Jun 02 $74 +$25 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $11,304 +$10,449 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $4,186 +$138 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25,090 −$268 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $3,570 +$680 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 31 $1,877 −$157 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in June? May 30 $36 +$8 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 33% +$4,111
world 29% +$3,264
politics 22% +$11,788
other 13% −$244
sports 2% +$85
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 5h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 5h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $55 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $36 11h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $6 11h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $3 11h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $16 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 50¢ $16 12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 4¢ $5 16h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 5¢ $24 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $1 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 8¢ $204 26h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $4,808 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 75¢ $1,460 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? SELL Yes 44¢ $112 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $82 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL No 51¢ $202 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 17¢ $78 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY No 20¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 27¢ $41 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 34¢ $255 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $9,790 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 99¢ $1,364 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -49.9% -54.7% 23% 21% -30.2%
≤30d 106 -12.3% -20.7% 49% 37% -12.4%
≤90d 148 +12.7% +2.0% 55% 39% -6.6%
all 148 +12.7% +2.0% 55% 39% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 39% -6.6%
10% -7.8% 26% -15.5%
15% ← realistic here -16.7% 18% -23.7%
20% -24.9% 14% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,063.28 · official $48,063.45 (match) · 3500 history records