Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x264b…cf7f sports 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$861 (+7%) realized +$1,492 · open −$631
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 86L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days+$291
14 days+$525
30 days+$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1,749
other 20% −$896
crypto 13% +$808
world 9% +$130
politics 4% −$123
finance 4% −$443
economics 2% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -7.0% -15.9% 37% 37% -3.4%
≤30d 62 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 40% +1.7%
≤90d 83 -8.2% -17.0% 35% 33% -10.5%
all 146 +24.4% +12.5% 41% 37% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 37% +6.3%
10% +1.8% 34% -3.9%
15% -8.1% 32% -13.2%
20% -17.1% 32% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$52 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$1,501
Realized+$1,492
Unrealized−$631
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 86
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions27
Markets (closed)146 / 173
History coverage192d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $250 $263 +$13 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $250 $227 −$23 (-9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 31¢ 56¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+79%)
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $130 $88 −$42 (-33%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 68¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $47 $51 +$4 (+9%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $100 $19 −$81 (-81%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $40 $17 −$23 (-58%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $100 $14 −$86 (-86%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-82%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-90%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $140 $5 −$135 (-96%)
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $152 +$140 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 +$28 +11%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$11 +22%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 −$8 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$88 +172%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$93 +206%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$75 +105%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$243 +474%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$84 +119%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $71 +$95 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$148 +146%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $142 +$183 +129%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 23m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $283 40m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $9 42m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 42¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 34¢ $41 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $51 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $62 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $194 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 12h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 35¢ $49 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $194 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $51 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $71 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $51 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,501.44 · official $1,501.44 (match) · 402 history records