Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x264b…ad71
crypto · 498 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$285 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$277 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses212 / 271
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)483 / 498
History coverage62d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 15 History 483 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$158
14 days−$158
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+43%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? No 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 11¢ 39¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+267%)
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new song in 2026? No 11¢ 27¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+140%)
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+77%)
Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +181%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$8 +756%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 +$9 +9253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$5 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +218%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$4 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$2 -189%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% −$145
other 20% −$39
world 11% −$22
sports 10% −$47
politics 1% −$3
tech 1% −$4
culture 1% −$12
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 19m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 20m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 24m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 50m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 -6.8% -15.6% 49% 37% -13.8%
≤30d 394 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 35% -15.6%
≤90d 483 -7.7% -16.4% 44% 34% -17.3%
all 483 -7.7% -16.4% 44% 34% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 34% -17.3%
10% -24.4% 30% -25.2%
15% -31.7% 25% -32.4%
20% -38.4% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.64 · official $40.46 · 1827 history records