trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $6 | +$5 (+455%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +105% |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 17¢ | $1 | 15h |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | BUY Yes | 26¢ | $1 | 15h |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | BUY Yes | 18¢ | $1 | 15h |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL Yes | 87¢ | $1 | 15h |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 16¢ | $1 | 15h |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 6¢ | $1 | 15h |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | BUY Yes | 7¢ | $1 | 38h |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 54¢ | $1 | 38h |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | BUY Yes | 16¢ | $1 | 42h |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | BUY Yes | 22¢ | $1 | 47h |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY Yes | 87¢ | $1 | 2d |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 60¢ | $1 | 2d |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 48¢ | $1 | 2d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -66.2% | -69.4% | 11% | 11% | -72.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -66.2% | -69.4% | 11% | 11% | -72.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -66.2% | -69.4% | 11% | 11% | -72.2% |
| all | 9 | -66.2% | -69.4% | 11% | 11% | -72.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -69.4% | 11% | -72.2% |
| 10% | -72.3% | 11% | -74.8% |
| 15% | -75.0% | 11% | -77.3% |
| 20% | -77.4% | 11% | -79.5% |