Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2647…c373 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$4
other 25% −$7
politics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.6% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 20 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 0% -9.1%
all 39 -0.5% -9.9% 51% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage474d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $71 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend? Mar 30 $20 −$7 -38%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $19 +$1 +3%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $19 $0 +0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 20 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $37 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $34 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $21 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $18 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $39 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $23 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $13 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $9 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $27 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $35 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.65 · official $1.65 (match) · 114 history records