Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2646…4d0b crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+1%) realized +$96 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$57
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$59
sports 16% +$13
culture 5% +$5
finance 5% +$43
crypto 1% −$5
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$9
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 15 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 22 -30.7% -37.3% 64% 5% -8.8%
all 48 -37.7% -43.6% 50% 17% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 17% -8.4%
10% -49.0% 10% -17.2%
15% -53.9% 8% -25.2%
20% -58.5% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -50% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$1,523
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage708d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gio Reyna: 3+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $1,515 $1,521 +$6 (+0%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 39¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ladislav Krejčí: 2+ goals Jun 19 $1,515 +$16 +1%
João Félix: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,514 +$15 +1%
Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals Jun 17 $520 +$5 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals Jun 16 $520 +$5 +1%
Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals Jun 15 $520 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $521 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $521 +$5 +1%
Cole Young: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $416 +$4 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $502 +$5 +1%
Spread: Costa Rica (-1.5) Jun 10 $193 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 2 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $312 +$4 +1%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $501 +$11 +2%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $9 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -9%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kevin Durant be traded to the Spurs? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces in Iran before August? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 21? Jan 23 $500 +$43 +9%
US recession in 2025? Dec 02 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? May 22 $2 +$2 +108%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Dec 03 $2 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 03 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? Dec 03 $3 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Dec 03 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran military response before October? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Harris debate before election? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B Sep 05 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gio Reyna: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,515 1h
Ladislav Krejčí: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,515 23h
João Félix: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,514 45h
Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $520 2d
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $520 2d
Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $520 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 99¢ $521 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $521 5d
Cole Young: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $416 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $502 8d
Spread: Costa Rica (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $193 8d
Exact Score: Málaga CF 2 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 99¢ $312 9d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $501 10d
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $198 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 11d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 73d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 21? BUY Up 92¢ $500 148d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 165d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 199d
US recession in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 199d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $9 200d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 308d
Will Kevin Durant be traded to the Spurs? BUY Yes $1 360d
US forces in Iran before August? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 360d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $1 392d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $2 392d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY Yes $2 416d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,523.34 · official $1,523.34 (match) · 107 history records