Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
26 0x2645…0508 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-3%) realized −$111 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%32W / 25L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$484
other 7% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.4% -7.3% 56% 56% +5.7%
≤30d 57 +2.4% -7.3% 56% 56% +5.7%
≤90d 57 +2.4% -7.3% 56% 56% +5.7%
all 57 +2.4% -7.3% 56% 56% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 56% +5.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 53% -4.4%
15% -24.3% 47% -13.6%
20% -31.7% 30% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$28 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses32 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $759 $766 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$51 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$66 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$364 +364%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$133 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $201 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$76 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$18 +88%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$23 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$61 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $120 −$97 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$19 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $120 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $240 −$13 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$9 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$3 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$17 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$18 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $776 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $101 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $100 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $34 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $100 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $464 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $89 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $233 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.58 · official $765.58 (match) · 106 history records