Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2644…00eb crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-10%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 29% -19.0%
≤30d 17 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 29% -19.0%
≤90d 17 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 29% -19.0%
all 17 -36.2% -42.3% 35% 29% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 29% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 6% -26.7%
15% -52.8% 0% -33.8%
20% -57.5% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records