Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2644…12f1 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$629
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$42
sports 2% −$25
world 1% +$10
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +10.0% -0.5% 54% 54% -9.0%
≤30d 42 +5.2% -4.8% 52% 52% -8.7%
≤90d 42 +5.2% -4.8% 52% 52% -8.7%
all 42 +5.2% -4.8% 52% 52% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 52% -8.7%
10% -13.9% 48% -17.4%
15% -22.3% 45% -25.4%
20% -29.9% 40% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$33 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)42 / 56
History coverage126d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $106 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $108 +$100 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $107 +$149 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $508 +$222 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$79 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +55%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 +$10 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 24h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 25h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.87 · official $484.87 (match) · 121 history records