Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2642…a556 other 28 markets active 24h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$2
other 25% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 10% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.7%
all 28 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage266d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $53 +$1 +2%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $29 $0 -1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $34 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $32 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $36 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $36 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $24 7d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes $0 171d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $6 254d
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $23 257d
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $23 257d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL No 99¢ $23 257d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? BUY No 99¢ $23 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records