Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
26 0x2642…4801 crypto 2182 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate71%1229W / 509L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day120.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days−$263
14 days+$596
30 days+$1,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 -37.4% -43.4% 37% 36% -41.1%
≤30d 1738 +21.3% +9.8% 71% 70% +16.9%
≤90d 1738 +21.3% +9.8% 71% 70% +16.9%
all 1738 +21.3% +9.8% 71% 70% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 70% +16.9%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 67% +5.7%
15% -10.3% 62% -4.5%
20% -19.1% 54% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1229 / 509
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1738 / 2182
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day120.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1738 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records