trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -33.7% | -40.0% | 50% | 50% | -6.6% |
| ≤30d | 30 | -23.8% | -31.0% | 43% | 37% | -20.8% |
| ≤90d | 34 | -27.8% | -34.7% | 41% | 35% | -22.7% |
| all | 55 | -22.6% | -30.0% | 45% | 40% | -21.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.0% | 40% | -21.4% |
| 10% | -36.7% | 38% | -28.9% |
| 15% | -42.8% | 29% | -35.8% |
| 20% | -48.4% | 20% | -42.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+36%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 | Over | 46¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $91 | +$33 | +36% |
| Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 | Jun 22 | $78 | +$22 | +29% |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 | Jun 17 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $47 | −$46 | -99% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $19 | −$19 | -99% |
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $74 | −$2 | -3% |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 | Jun 15 | $5 | −$4 | -74% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 15 | $6 | −$4 | -62% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $64 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $62 | +$3 | +4% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$4 | -90% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$5 | -78% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $7 | +$8 | +115% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $5 | +$2 | +34% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $8 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$5 | +105% |
| SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? | Jun 12 | $9 | −$9 | -99% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $9 | +$10 | +109% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $9 | +$4 | +45% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $18 | +$7 | +43% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $4 | +$2 | +62% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $8 | −$3 | -42% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $5 | +$5 | +96% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $20 | −$12 | -61% |
| Rockets vs. Suns | May 07 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 07 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 17 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Apr 08 | $48 | +$32 | +67% |
| Hornets vs. Rockets | Feb 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Raptors | Feb 09 | $15 | +$5 | +30% |
| Spurs vs. Mavericks | Feb 06 | $7 | +$3 | +39% |
| Grizzlies vs. Kings | Feb 05 | $4 | +$6 | +150% |
| Cavaliers vs. Clippers | Feb 05 | $6 | +$3 | +54% |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 04 | $7 | +$8 | +122% |
| Hawks vs. Heat | Feb 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Warriors | Feb 04 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Pistons | Feb 04 | $3 | +$1 | +46% |
| Lakers vs. Nets | Feb 04 | $4 | +$1 | +31% |
| Cavaliers vs. Hornets | Feb 03 | $3 | +$2 | +72% |
| Pacers vs. Celtics | Feb 03 | $4 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | Feb 03 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Grizzlies | Feb 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Feb 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Lakers | Feb 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |