Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x263c…3ef9 crypto 775 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$472 (-1%) realized −$472 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%399W / 376L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$423
14 days−$359
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
other 0% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -24.7% -31.9% 42% 42% -28.7%
≤30d 238 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 42% -15.3%
≤90d 775 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 51% -9.7%
all 775 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 51% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 51% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 51% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 51% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 50% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$56 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses399 / 376
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)775 / 775
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 775 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $89 +$60 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $138 +$64 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$24 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$50 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $89 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $138 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $68 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records