Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x263c…87a0 crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$146 · open −$72
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate73%58W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$185
14 days−$34
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$305
other 35% +$72
world 12% +$106
politics 9% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.9% +5.7% 100% 38% +3.4%
≤30d 17 -13.5% -21.8% 76% 24% -16.8%
≤90d 79 -15.0% -23.1% 73% 29% -9.4%
all 79 -15.0% -23.1% 73% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 29% -9.4%
10% -30.4% 15% -18.0%
15% -37.2% 8% -25.9%
20% -43.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$68 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,697
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses58 / 21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)79 / 84
History coverage97d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $551 $589 +$37 (+7%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $498 $527 +$29 (+6%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $3,000 66¢ 44¢ $473 $317 −$156 (-33%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $183 $194 +$11 (+6%)
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $63 $71 +$8 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $170 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $60 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $160 +$8 +5%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $311 +$89 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $66 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $69 +$1 +2%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $370 +$21 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 21 $88 +$5 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $131 −$128 -98%
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? Jun 13 $32 +$9 +28%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $319 −$318 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 07 $374 +$6 +2%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Jun 05 $1,606 +$82 +5%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? May 26 $92 +$2 +2%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? May 26 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $161 +$4 +3%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 26 $134 +$17 +12%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? May 22 $2,209 +$93 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 22 $72 +$17 +24%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 18 $338 +$37 +11%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $968 +$299 +31%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? May 15 $72 +$8 +12%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? May 11 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 11 $145 +$2 +2%
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig? May 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 09 $152 +$8 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? May 08 $140 −$104 -74%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 06 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 06 $151 +$7 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 06 $98 +$7 +7%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $2,241 +$229 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5AM ET May 02 $7 −$6 -94%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 02 $14 −$13 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 02 $29 +$11 +37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 02 $17 −$17 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 02 $13 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 3AM ET May 02 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? May 02 $79 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 3AM ET May 02 $8 −$8 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 02 $11 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 11PM ET May 02 $3 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 02 $7 +$3 +48%
HYPE Up or Down - May 1, 11PM ET May 02 $13 −$13 -99%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 11PM ET May 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Down 73¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 61¢ $125 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 40¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 43¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 58¢ $60 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 84¢ $82 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 84¢ $86 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 79¢ $160 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 95¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 82¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 98¢ $69 4d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $365 6d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $93 6d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 8d
Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 64¢ $131 13d
Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $27 13d
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 13d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 14d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 14d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $36 14d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 14d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 14d
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 15d
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 15d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 18d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $108 18d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $38 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,696.85 · official $1,696.85 (match) · 635 history records