Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2639…a9b6 sports 1502 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,587 (-28%) realized −$18,587 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%708W / 794L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$613est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$4,479
crypto 31% −$2,200
other 8% −$612
world 1% −$5
politics 0% −$53
finance 0% +$6
weather 0% −$25
tech 0% +$9
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.7% -19.2% 42% 42% -15.9%
≤30d 298 -18.9% -26.6% 40% 37% -20.3%
≤90d 1502 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 38% -19.6%
all 1502 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 38% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 38% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 31% -27.3%
15% -36.2% 28% -34.3%
20% -42.4% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$39 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18,587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses708 / 794
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$613
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1502 / 1502
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1502 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $122 +$177 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $75 +$31 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$33 +32%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $152 +$346 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $265 −$265 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $142 +$130 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $152 +$25 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$27 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$35 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $62 −$27 -44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$110 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $844 −$400 -47%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $1 +$3 +304%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $91 −$91 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 27 $231 −$231 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 27 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 26 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 −$2 -51%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $3 $0 +3%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $52 −$28 -54%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $104 −$8 -8%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $78 −$42 -54%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $52 −$16 -31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $25 −$23 -92%
Will voter turnout be between 85% and 90% in the 2026 Maltese general May 26 $25 −$10 -39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $4 $0 +6%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $3 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $103 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $498 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 19¢ $26 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 22¢ $10 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 23¢ $5 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $5 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 33¢ $12 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 32¢ $5 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 33¢ $26 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 13h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $265 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $272 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $142 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $141 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $9 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 18¢ $26 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 77¢ $36 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $152 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $135 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $129 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records