Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2638…8e2d sports 1456 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,116 (-7%) realized −$1,149 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%694W / 655L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day83.3pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$27
14 days+$370
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$585
crypto 18% −$466
other 5% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 760 -1.2% -10.7% 54% 44% -9.1%
≤30d 1349 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 45% -11.6%
≤90d 1349 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 45% -11.6%
all 1349 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 45% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -20.0%
15% -26.2% 34% -27.8%
20% -33.5% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized−$1,149
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses694 / 655
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions37
Markets (closed)1349 / 1456
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day83.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 1349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Corentin Moutet 42¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Donna Vekic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 62¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$6 (+61%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Noir Esports 21¢ 50¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+140%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 59¢ 82¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+40%)
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Fokina 32¢ 41¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 65¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+20%)
Set Handicap: Brooksby (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 78¢ 93¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 72¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? No 43¢ 46¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Under 60¢ 65¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 60¢ 62¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 64¢ 64¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Xiyu Wang 82¢ 82¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 61¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 463 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Ozarox Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$2 -194%
Senators vs. Devils Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Jun 17 $0 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 33¢ $6 1m
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 78¢ $6 3h
Norbert Gombos vs. Dalibor Svrcina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $2 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 79¢ $5 4h
Set Handicap: Brooksby (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 78¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $6 5h
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) BUY Siniakova 56¢ $10 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 7h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 62¢ $6 8h
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) BUY Siniakova 56¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 52¢ $12 8h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 77¢ $10 8h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 22¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $10 8h
Daniel Jade vs. Raphael Perot: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $0 8h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 70¢ $10 8h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 43¢ $10 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $4 8h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 56¢ $8 8h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $10 8h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) BUY Humbert 36¢ $1 8h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 63¢ $10 8h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 41¢ $10 9h
Xiyu Wang vs. Carole Monnet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 29¢ $1 9h
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) BUY Hijikata 12¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.76 · official $514.52 · 3500 history records