Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
26 0x2638…09a8 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,497 (-10%) realized −$3,498 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate81%39W / 9L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$725
14 days+$1,212
30 days−$3,782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$3,877
sports 39% +$233
politics 5% +$4
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.1% +5.1% 70% 60% +6.2%
≤30d 24 -8.5% -17.2% 62% 38% -27.5%
≤90d 33 -6.2% -15.1% 73% 27% -19.2%
all 48 +4.0% -5.9% 81% 40% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 40% -18.6%
10% -14.9% 27% -26.4%
15% -23.1% 19% -33.5%
20% -30.7% 10% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$604 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$3,498
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses39 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage278d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$121 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,053 +$101 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,204 +$130 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 +$210 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $805 +$195 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $629 +$300 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$9 -16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? May 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5,091 −$5,091 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $405 +$317 +78%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $1,049 +$2 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 16 $230 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2025-10-12? Oct 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? Oct 12 $114 +$11 +10%
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? Oct 12 $97 +$14 +15%
Will France win on 2025-10-10? Oct 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? Oct 05 $1 $0 +22%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? Oct 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 04 $145 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 01 $146 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $25 +$7 +30%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? Sep 27 $50 +$6 +12%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $19 +$4 +22%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? Sep 24 $99 +$33 +33%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? Sep 23 $74 +$25 +33%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Sep 21 $50 +$25 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $41 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,053 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,204 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $805 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $929 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $629 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $43 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 100¢ $600 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5,091 26d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $484 28d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $8 28d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $1,506 28d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $2 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $124 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $564 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $360 29d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $398 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.73 · official $150.73 (match) · 151 history records