Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2635…41ae other 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$178 (+2%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%36W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$74
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$412
other 20% −$177
culture 13% +$123
world 2% −$87
tech 2% −$87
crypto 1% −$30
economics 0% −$1
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 36% -13.9%
≤30d 16 +55.9% +41.0% 56% 44% -3.1%
≤90d 16 +55.9% +41.0% 56% 44% -3.1%
all 75 +11.3% +0.7% 48% 43% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 43% -8.1%
10% -8.9% 33% -16.9%
15% -17.7% 24% -24.9%
20% -25.8% 19% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$77 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses36 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)75 / 85
History coverage231d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 67¢ 66¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 12¢ $42 $38 −$4 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+13%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 32¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $20 −$3 (-13%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$8 +317%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jun 20 $229 −$71 -31%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 20 $407 +$24 +6%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Jun 20 $188 −$90 -48%
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jun 20 $430 +$14 +3%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jun 20 $175 +$41 +24%
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jun 20 $65 −$8 -13%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +276%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +119%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? Jun 13 $36 +$179 +505%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $63 +$14 +23%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $699 +$186 +27%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Dec 15 $322 +$6 +2%
Will Kast win by 15% to 20%? Dec 14 $46 +$79 +170%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 14 $3,793 −$1,314 -35%
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%? Dec 14 $15 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $20 −$8 -40%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $53 −$12 -23%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $97 −$48 -50%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $27 +$31 +114%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $30 +$15 +50%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 04 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3? Dec 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? Dec 03 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2? Dec 02 $7 +$7 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025? Dec 02 $16 −$16 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 02 $50 +$6 +13%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25? Nov 28 $24 +$6 +25%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Nov 24 $24 +$26 +108%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on November 21 2 Nov 24 $666 −$666 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential elec Nov 21 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? Nov 21 $76 −$2 -2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on November 21 2 Nov 21 $76 −$39 -51%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $201 +$36 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 21 $156 −$33 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 21 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 21 $94 −$59 -63%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21? Nov 21 $19 +$21 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $323 +$145 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $97 −$44 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 12¢ $6 5m
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 13¢ $11 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $51 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 13¢ $13 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $27 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 13¢ $13 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 26h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 26h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 50¢ $2 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 44¢ $6 3d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 24¢ $24 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.47 · official $242.48 (match) · 1687 history records