Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2634…4c5d crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day102.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 33% +7.2%
≤30d 6 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 33% +7.2%
≤90d 6 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 33% +7.2%
all 6 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 33% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.4% 33% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 17% -3.0%
15% -48.0% 17% -12.4%
20% -53.1% 17% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
16.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day102.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$41 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records