Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
26 0x2632…26dd other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$5
politics 35% −$4
sports 10% +$14
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 81 -2.1% -11.4% 6% 4% -9.4%
all 101 -2.1% -11.5% 12% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage116d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $213 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $296 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $95 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $99 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $223 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $117 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $481 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $130 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 33d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $131 35d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $131 44d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $122 45d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $122 46d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $99 46d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $99 47d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 47d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 48d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 48d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 48d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $99 48d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $99 48d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 49d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 49d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $95 49d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $95 49d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $98 50d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $98 50d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 50d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 50d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $99 51d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $99 51d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $90 51d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $90 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records