Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x262d…8efe crypto 159 markets active 18d ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$706 (-2%) realized −$706 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate67%106W / 53L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$655
sports 3% −$129
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 30 -28.1% -35.0% 50% 10% -20.8%
≤90d 129 -18.6% -26.3% 61% 14% -12.1%
all 159 -15.4% -23.4% 67% 14% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 14% -11.9%
10% -30.8% 7% -20.3%
15% -37.5% 3% -28.0%
20% -43.6% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$28 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$706
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses106 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage95d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $586 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $610 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $914 −$914 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $956 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $919 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $41 −$15 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $930 +$77 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $926 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $267 +$3 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 23 $1,008 +$84 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 23 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 23 $961 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 23 $65 −$58 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 23 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 23 $125 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 23 $65 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 23 $66 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 23 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 23 $120 +$80 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 18 $904 +$9 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $600 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $585 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $600 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $50 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $904 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1114 history records