Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x2629…4166 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$602 (+26%) realized +$630 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$70
crypto 17% +$325
sports 15% +$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +71.0% +54.8% 64% 55% +42.7%
≤30d 11 +71.0% +54.8% 64% 55% +42.7%
≤90d 11 +71.0% +54.8% 64% 55% +42.7%
all 11 +71.0% +54.8% 64% 55% +42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.8% 55% +42.7%
10% +39.9% 55% +29.1%
15% +26.4% 55% +16.6%
20% +14.0% 55% +5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$69 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized+$630
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$212 +414%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $407 +$325 +80%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 +$7 +7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $43 +$113 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 54m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $95 10h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $732 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $110 18h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 21h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $153 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $43 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,271.91 · official $1,271.91 (match) · 29 history records