Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x261e…8ce2 crypto 625 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-1%) realized −$136 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%265W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$77
14 days+$31
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$315
world 0% +$9
sports 0% −$5
finance 0% +$22
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
other 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +6.4% -3.7% 44% 44% -3.9%
≤30d 363 -5.0% -14.0% 45% 45% -12.8%
≤90d 616 -4.0% -13.1% 42% 41% -11.5%
all 624 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 41% -11.5%
10% -21.3% 40% -20.0%
15% -28.9% 37% -27.7%
20% -35.9% 34% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$19 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses265 / 359
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)624 / 625
History coverage114d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$21 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$22 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$22 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$19 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$22 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$47 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$18 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$21 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$31 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$27 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$17 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$17 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$27 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$120 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$22 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.76 · official $2.76 (match) · 948 history records