Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x261a…2989
crypto · 87 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
−$2,592 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,632 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$546
Realized−$2,632
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage266d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 3 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$564
7 days−$564
14 days−$564
30 days−$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $103 $100 −$3 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $187 $0 −$187 (-100%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $287 $0 −$287 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $314 $0 −$314 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$16 -61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $291 −$287 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $190 −$187 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 26 $281 −$219 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 26 $319 −$314 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 26 $313 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 26 $350 +$142 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 26 $167 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 26 $157 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 26 $151 +$6 +4%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 26 $281 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 26 $129 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 25 $270 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 25 $192 +$77 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 25 $177 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 25 $163 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 25 $157 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 25 $149 +$34 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 25 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 25 $57 +$57 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 25 $48 +$9 +18%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September? Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4AM ET Mar 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 1PM ET Mar 23 $613 +$46 +8%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? Mar 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Napoli end in a draw? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 5PM ET Mar 23 $173 +$59 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4AM ET Mar 23 $42 −$31 -75%
Will Wolves win on 2025-09-27? Mar 23 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-28? Mar 23 $293 −$293 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3AM ET Mar 23 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-09-28? Mar 23 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $55 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$140
other 36% −$1,976
sports 4% −$276
politics 3% −$64
tech 3% −$69
world 2% −$113
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 56¢ $104 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $253 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $291 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $190 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $106 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $319 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $313 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $179 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $179 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $172 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $167 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $157 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $151 79d
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.0% -37.6% 42% 42% -71.8%
≤30d 12 -31.0% -37.6% 42% 42% -71.8%
≤90d 49 -33.4% -39.8% 49% 27% -39.3%
all 84 -17.5% -25.4% 48% 33% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 33% -32.5%
10% -32.5% 29% -39.0%
15% -39.0% 21% -44.9%
20% -45.0% 14% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $545.96 · official $545.96 (match) · 218 history records