Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2619…9cab
crypto · 1489 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$23 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses919 / 569
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1488 / 1489
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day137.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1488 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$30
14 days+$7
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 78¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 524 +5.7% -4.4% 67% 64% -8.4%
≤30d 1488 +5.2% -4.9% 62% 58% -9.2%
≤90d 1488 +5.2% -4.9% 62% 58% -9.2%
all 1488 +5.2% -4.9% 62% 58% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover137.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 58% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 54% -17.9%
15% -22.3% 44% -25.8%
20% -29.9% 29% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.12 · official $3.12 (match) · 3500 history records