Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2617…4129 sports 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$255 (-4%) realized −$253 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%142W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days+$9
14 days−$71
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$125
other 29% −$167
world 2% +$29
politics 1% −$21
culture 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$15
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +5.6% -4.5% 46% 46% -8.1%
≤30d 112 +14.0% +3.1% 54% 54% -1.3%
≤90d 334 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 37% -19.4%
all 349 -11.1% -19.6% 41% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -14.4%
10% -27.3% 40% -22.6%
15% -34.3% 39% -30.0%
20% -40.7% 35% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses142 / 207
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions4
Markets (closed)349 / 359
History coverage156d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 71¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $3 $0 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$8 +46%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +126%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$21 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$18 -86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 Jun 17 $10 +$23 +230%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $19 +$11 +59%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$10 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $19 +$45 +243%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $18 +$11 +63%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 +$19 +76%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 +$14 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Casemiro: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $11 +$10 +90%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$9 +58%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$22 +559%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $16 +$12 +74%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $13 +$8 +64%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $15 +$12 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $20 +$14 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $13 +$15 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $19 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals AND Matheus Cun BUY 6¢ $3 1h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on BUY 38¢ $5 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $20 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $14 19h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 23h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 46h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 18¢ $19 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $3 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $19 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $14 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 SELL 83¢ $33 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.78 · official $176.30 · 868 history records