Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2614…4442 sports 512 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,061 (-2%) realized −$2,678 · open −$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%274W / 451L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day118.7pace
Fees−$1,311est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,689
other 20% −$1,070
finance 2% −$81
crypto 1% −$95
world 0% −$66
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 422 -40.7% -46.3% 31% 25% -29.9%
≤30d 725 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 30% -18.2%
≤90d 725 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 30% -18.2%
all 725 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 30% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 30% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 22% -26.0%
15% -44.5% 18% -33.1%
20% -49.9% 15% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$114 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$2,678
Unrealized−$383
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses274 / 451
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,311
Open positions12
Markets (closed)725 / 512
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$288
Trades / day118.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 725 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 35¢ 22¢ $282 $179 −$103 (-36%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 86¢ 100¢ $70 $81 +$11 (+16%)
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B? Yes 52¢ 16¢ $245 $78 −$167 (-68%)
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $138 $48 −$90 (-65%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 78¢ $24 $34 +$9 (+39%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+28%)
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 39¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $8 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 89¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 47¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+64%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 78¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 12¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 355 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in January? Jun 20 $1 $0 -13%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $401 −$401 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68t Jun 20 $141 −$140 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of January? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? Jun 20 $312 −$312 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 20 $927 −$927 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? Jun 20 $163 −$168 -103%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Jun 20 $22 −$18 -80%
Knicks vs. Nets Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $216 −$216 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Jun 20 $2 −$65 -4022%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 89¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 12¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 86¢ $63 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $8 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $35 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $101 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $406 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $526 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $138 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $201 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $97 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $49 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $460 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.30 · official $458.81 (match) · 3500 history records