Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2614…d82e
other · 61 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$86 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$87 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$156
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions34
Markets (closed)27 / 61
History coverage199d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 34 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+105%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anxiety (Doechii) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 +$9 +186%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $5 +$15 +300%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68t Feb 02 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Feb 02 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$4
culture 30% −$62
sports 12% −$3
economics 6% −$22
world 4% +$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 4h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 5h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 6h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $4 8h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -72.1% -74.7% 14% 14% -75.6%
≤30d 22 -72.1% -74.7% 14% 14% -75.6%
≤90d 24 -57.2% -61.3% 21% 21% -63.8%
all 27 -37.6% -43.5% 30% 30% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 30% -49.5%
10% -48.9% 26% -54.4%
15% -53.9% 22% -58.8%
20% -58.4% 15% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.66 · official $153.71 · 94 history records