Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
26 0x2613…08e3 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$172 (-13%) realized −$164 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$68
other 23% +$61
politics 18% −$200
weather 5% +$14
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 50% -9.0%
≤30d 36 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 50% -9.0%
≤90d 36 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 50% -9.0%
all 37 +0.1% -9.5% 54% 49% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 49% -25.2%
10% -18.1% 43% -32.4%
15% -26.0% 38% -38.9%
20% -33.3% 22% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions21
Markets (closed)37 / 59
History coverage194d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 26¢ 26¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 28? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 28? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+480%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 29? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 29? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on June 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 27? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $13 +$27 +199%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $30 +$12 +42%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $25 +$11 +47%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $44 +$10 +22%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $53 −$9 -16%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $71 −$70 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $71 +$1 +1%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $38 −$1 -3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$22 +44%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $106 −$77 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $18 −$4 -21%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $20 +$8 +39%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$34 +66%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $36 +$11 +30%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $18 +$8 +46%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $16 −$1 -5%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 −$7 -27%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $19 −$6 -29%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $24 +$19 +79%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $26 +$28 +110%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $25 +$10 +40%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $39 +$5 +12%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 +$14 +54%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 26¢ $19 6m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 29? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 53m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 56m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 98¢ $40 2h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 33¢ $36 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.66 · official $159.67 (match) · 108 history records