Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2613…12bd sports 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,347 (+8%) realized +$7,553 · open −$206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%98W / 112L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1,111est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$589
7 days+$8,418
14 days+$7,077
30 days+$8,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,156
other 15% +$9,387
politics 10% −$1,822
world 4% −$249
crypto 0% +$29
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +16.9% +5.7% 48% 45% +31.4%
≤30d 134 +12.9% +2.1% 49% 46% +2.1%
≤90d 186 +6.9% -3.2% 47% 46% -2.4%
all 210 +5.3% -4.7% 47% 44% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 44% -2.8%
10% -13.8% 42% -12.1%
15% -22.2% 42% -20.6%
20% -29.8% 40% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$246 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$1,101
Realized+$7,553
Unrealized−$206
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses98 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,111
Open positions9
Markets (closed)210 / 219
History coverage206d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 42¢ $512 $529 +$17 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $177 $189 +$12 (+7%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $101 $49 −$52 (-52%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers 36¢ 0¢ $182 $0 −$182 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $413 +$286 +69%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $405 −$405 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $470 −$470 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$363 +90%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $143 +$357 +250%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 +$42 +206%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $45 +$55 +122%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$23 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $306 +$207 +68%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $448 +$12 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $93 +$97 +104%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $553 +$447 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,828 +$1,979 +108%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$40 +197%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $142 −$142 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $31 +$63 +206%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $42 +$58 +140%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,465 +$5,363 +155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,028 +$1,320 +44%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $923 −$923 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $204 −$16 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,118 −$364 -33%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $558 −$558 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $304 +$241 +79%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $1,760 +$1,513 +86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,320 −$689 -52%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $406 −$406 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $202 +$120 +60%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 07 $203 −$203 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $203 −$203 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $163 2m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $93 3m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $607 3m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $43 32m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $102 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 59¢ $3 4h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 59¢ $7 4h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 59¢ $354 4h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 59¢ $5 5h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 59¢ $14 5h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 59¢ $30 5h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 35¢ $34 7h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 35¢ $8 7h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 35¢ $5 7h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 35¢ $9 7h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 35¢ $9 8h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 35¢ $5 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $255 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $61 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $3 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $1 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $1 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $56 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $1 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $1 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $4 9h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $1 10h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $6 10h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,101.33 · official $1,101.33 (match) · 1430 history records