Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x260f…dfff crypto 1137 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-1%) realized −$94 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate89%1010W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$54
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$70
crypto 31% −$94
weather 8% $0
sports 6% +$96
world 6% +$5
tech 5% −$16
politics 5% −$23
culture 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +88.0% +70.1% 54% 54% +10.5%
≤30d 22 +64.7% +49.0% 50% 45% +2.3%
≤90d 131 +9.8% -0.7% 85% 8% -6.9%
all 1135 +0.4% -9.1% 89% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -10.5%
10% -17.8% 3% -19.0%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.9%
20% -33.0% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1010 / 125
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1135 / 1137
History coverage214d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$47 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$48 +786%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$16 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$13 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$21 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 30 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on Marc Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +0%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Connecticut Huskies (W) Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on March Mar 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 29? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 2 Mar 30 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 29? Mar 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on March 28? Mar 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $6 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 on March 27? Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $41 17h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $44 36h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 36h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 10d
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 100¢ $10 83d
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Connecticut Huskies (W) BUY Connecticut Huskies 99¢ $6 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 84d
XRP Up or Down on March 29? BUY Down 99¢ $6 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.06 · official $58.06 (match) · 2944 history records