Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x260d…7a96 sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$173 (+10%) realized +$172 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%64W / 65L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$64
14 days+$89
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$42
other 24% +$44
world 23% +$84
finance 2% −$4
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +43.6% +29.9% 48% 48% +7.1%
≤30d 41 +35.2% +22.3% 54% 51% +9.4%
≤90d 67 +13.0% +2.2% 46% 45% -0.5%
all 129 +25.8% +13.8% 50% 47% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 47% -0.9%
10% +2.9% 44% -10.4%
15% -7.0% 36% -19.1%
20% -16.2% 29% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses64 / 65
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage150d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+15%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $11 +$8 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $16 −$7 -43%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$4 -38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$20 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $7 +$34 +474%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $9 −$5 -62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $7 +$3 +38%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $53 +$27 +50%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $9 +$9 +109%
Jordan Ayew: 3+ shots Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$13 +128%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$45 +549%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $19 −$7 -35%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$6 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$20 +324%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 −$8 -70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 −$6 -51%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $46 +$25 +54%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $33 +$14 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4 +$6 +148%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 +$12 +97%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -98%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $15 −$13 -87%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $6 +$8 +123%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $8 +$14 +172%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 30 $30 +$21 +68%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $7 +$10 +145%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 19 $12 −$2 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $24 −$3 -12%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $21 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $11 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $9 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $3 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $13 3h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 24¢ $7 3h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $12 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $6 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $14 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $13 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $3 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $3 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $9 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $3 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $9 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 91¢ $9 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $7 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $79 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $45 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $8 2d
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $13 2d
Jordan Ayew: 3+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.13 · official $52.13 (match) · 283 history records