Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
26 0x2602…12cc sports 13 markets active 20h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+26%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$6
other 20% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +46.7% +32.7% 77% 77% +15.7%
≤30d 13 +46.7% +32.7% 77% 77% +15.7%
≤90d 13 +46.7% +32.7% 77% 77% +15.7%
all 13 +46.7% +32.7% 77% 77% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.7% 77% +15.7%
10% +20.0% 77% +4.6%
15% +8.4% 69% -5.5%
20% -2.2% 62% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records