Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ff…0849 crypto 1212 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$632 (-1%) realized −$632 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%713W / 499L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$628
7 days−$938
14 days+$594
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,026
other 7% −$1,328
sports 1% +$644
tech 1% −$180
culture 1% −$725
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -11.1% -19.6% 56% 44% -16.6%
≤30d 66 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 39% -9.2%
≤90d 1171 -3.8% -13.0% 59% 40% -9.6%
all 1212 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 39% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% -11.8%
10% -21.8% 24% -20.3%
15% -29.4% 15% -28.0%
20% -36.3% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$39 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$632
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses713 / 499
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1212 / 1212
History coverage144d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1212 Trades
no open positions (165 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$130 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $818 +$261 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $1,032 −$257 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $363 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $524 −$270 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$127 +62%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $707 +$268 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $504 +$198 +39%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $403 +$110 +27%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$184 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $163 +$381 +233%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $213 −$209 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$161 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $564 +$181 +32%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $1,130 −$540 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$135 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $507 −$295 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $316 −$185 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $511 +$206 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $402 +$30 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $236 −$34 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $336 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1,079 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 44¢ $775 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $371 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $333 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 87¢ $703 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 37¢ $306 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 62¢ $272 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3089 history records