Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25fe…aab1
crypto · 143 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$93 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$90 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 101
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)122 / 143
History coverage102d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 21 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Bill Gates charged by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$1 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $33 −$5 -15%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $65 +$21 +32%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$6 +563%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$4 +390%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 04 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% −$56
other 25% −$30
world 19% −$3
sports 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
politics 1% −$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 13d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -71.3%
≤30d 20 -68.4% -71.4% 10% 10% -21.9%
≤90d 63 -60.1% -63.9% 11% 10% -47.2%
all 122 -37.8% -43.7% 17% 16% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 16% -34.0%
10% -49.1% 16% -40.3%
15% -54.0% 15% -46.1%
20% -58.5% 14% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.66 · official $39.66 (match) · 273 history records