Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25fe…7b2a sports 31 markets active 5d ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$522 (-9%) realized −$522 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% $0
sports 11% −$513
other 2% $0
crypto 2% −$2
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.8% -3.4% 32% 4% -6.1%
≤30d 25 +6.8% -3.4% 32% 4% -6.1%
≤90d 25 +6.8% -3.4% 32% 4% -6.1%
all 28 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 4% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 4% -54.1%
10% -18.9% 4% -58.5%
15% -26.7% 4% -62.5%
20% -33.9% 4% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage463d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$21 +172%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 13 $24 $0 -2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 13 $24 $0 -2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 -1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 13 $23 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -2%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $7 $0 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Mar 25 $535 −$535 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 14 $24 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $12 5d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 92¢ $7 256d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,874 272d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,877 272d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,129 272d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,133 272d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 326d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 433d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $21 445d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $25 445d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $16 445d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $23 445d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $22 445d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $14 445d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $26 449d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $17 449d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $22 449d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $24 449d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $23 449d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $15 449d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? SELL No 90¢ $18 449d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $22 449d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 96¢ $20 449d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 96¢ $18 449d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 90¢ $22 449d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 88¢ $23 449d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 92¢ $24 455d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 97¢ $22 455d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 97¢ $19 455d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.39 · official $8.39 (match) · 83 history records