Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25fd…5bf2 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$23
politics 23% −$13
sports 16% −$6
crypto 8% −$12
culture 5% −$8
economics 4% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 3% −$2
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 64 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 129 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $108 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $212 −$4 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $112 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 −$1 -2%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $61 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $93 −$2 -2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $45 +$4 +10%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 07 $54 +$5 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 06 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $365 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $11 −$1 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $43 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $638 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $62 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $102 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 32m
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $58 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $59 7h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $39 7h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $39 13h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $47 14h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $48 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 24h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 25h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $44 25h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 30h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 30h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 36h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 37h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 45h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 46h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $10 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $55 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $55 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $51 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $52 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.38 · official $40.38 (match) · 455 history records