Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25fd…bf28 world 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$19 (+13%) realized +$0 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$45
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.6% +19.1% 17% 17% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +31.6% +19.1% 17% 17% -9.6%
≤90d 6 +31.6% +19.1% 17% 17% -9.6%
all 6 +31.6% +19.1% 17% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.1% 17% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +7.7% 17% -18.3%
15% -2.7% 17% -26.2%
20% -12.2% 17% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 46¢ $16 $61 +$46 (+293%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 24¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 28¢ 29¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 40¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 71¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +242%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $19 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 08 $14 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $3 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 70¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 20¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.52 · official $92.15 (match) · 225 history records