Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25fa…bdd0 sports 353 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,553 (+2%) realized +$3,530 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate80%280W / 71L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$3,603
other 4% −$187
crypto 0% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.0% -12.2% 80% 20% +6.6%
≤30d 5 -3.0% -12.2% 80% 20% +6.6%
≤90d 266 -8.8% -17.5% 77% 30% -7.9%
all 351 -5.3% -14.3% 80% 33% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 33% -7.8%
10% -22.5% 15% -16.6%
15% -30.0% 7% -24.7%
20% -36.9% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$50 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$3,530
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses280 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions2
Markets (closed)351 / 353
History coverage105d
Avg bet$505
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Madison Keys 89¢ 100¢ $200 $224 +$23 (+12%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $201 +$14 +7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $126 +$75 +59%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne Jun 26 $100 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne Jun 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $172 +$17 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $302 −$206 -68%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $96 +$30 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 25 $190 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $236 +$37 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $200 +$12 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 20 $401 +$10 +3%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 19 $3 $0 +16%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Shuai Zha May 19 $6 +$1 +18%
Gangwon FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $36 +$2 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 17 $35 +$6 +17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $30 +$7 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Talia Gibson vs Diana Shnaider May 08 $132 −$12 -9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse May 07 $401 +$25 +6%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 07 $109 +$6 +5%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $66 +$7 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jenson Brooksby vs Sebastian Baez May 06 $100 +$15 +14%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $160 +$15 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anhelina Kalinina vs Katie May 06 $167 +$33 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Simona Waltert May 05 $101 +$58 +57%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Julia Grabh May 05 $40 +$17 +42%
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: O/U 3.5 May 05 $100 +$15 +15%
Wuxi: Jie Cui vs Alexis Galarneau May 05 $190 −$190 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Sinja Kra May 05 $38 −$1 -3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Irin May 05 $230 +$3 +1%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi May 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Jiajing Lu May 04 $200 +$17 +8%
Huzhou: Veronika Erjavec vs Katarzyna Kawa May 03 $320 +$93 +29%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 03 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $82 +$28 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Huzhou: Katarzyna Kawa vs Hanyu Guo May 02 $3 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $689 +$28 +4%
La Bisbal: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Elena Pridankina May 01 $22 +$15 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $215 28m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 89¢ $201 45m
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 93¢ $201 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 63¢ $25 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 62¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne BUY The Huns Esports 71¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 92¢ $100 6h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 96¢ $21 17h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 90¢ $150 17h
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga SELL Sebastian Baez 24¢ $96 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Sebastian Baez 73¢ $302 31d
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Marco Trungelliti 97¢ $190 33d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $96 33d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY Legacy 86¢ $236 37d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group BUY MIBR 94¢ $200 37d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $202 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $411 37d
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $40 38d
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Shuai Zha BUY Talia Gibson 84¢ $6 40d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 74¢ $40 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $3 40d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 85¢ $35 40d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $37 40d
Gangwon FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $36 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $401 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Talia Gibson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 78¢ $120 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Talia Gibson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 85¢ $132 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic BUY McCartney Kessler 42¢ $10 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 94¢ $401 49d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $9 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.87 · official $223.87 (match) · 954 history records