Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
25 0x25f9…51d1 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-27%) realized −$6 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$3
other 42% −$10
economics 15% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -52.3%
≤30d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -52.3%
≤90d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -52.3%
all 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 50% -52.3%
10% -25.3% 50% -56.9%
15% -32.5% 50% -61.0%
20% -39.1% 50% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No 2¢ $7 28h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $4 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.91 · official $25.91 (match) · 7 history records