Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x25f8…33b4 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$160 (+8%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +45.5% +31.6% 76% 71% +11.3%
≤30d 17 +45.5% +31.6% 76% 71% +11.3%
≤90d 17 +45.5% +31.6% 76% 71% +11.3%
all 17 +45.5% +31.6% 76% 71% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.6% 71% +11.3%
10% +19.0% 65% +0.7%
15% +7.5% 59% -9.1%
20% -3.0% 47% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +72% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$104 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $107 +$131 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $241 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $107 +$104 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $106 +$92 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $315 +$96 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $108 +$237 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$55 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $235 −$62 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $79 −$35 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$31 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$42 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$40 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records