Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x25f6…644e other 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$17
politics 18% −$3
sports 6% −$51
culture 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.9% +9.4% 20% 20% -7.1%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.4% 11% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 110 -5.3% -14.3% 9% 6% -10.1%
all 110 -5.3% -14.3% 9% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 6% -10.1%
10% -22.5% 6% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 6% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage86d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $133 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $348 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $242 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $113 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $353 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $353 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $116 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $120 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $245 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 27 $126 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 3m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 4h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 27h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $6 34h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 47h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.53 · official $106.53 (match) · 291 history records