Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25f4…f88e world 213 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (384 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31,668 (+42%) realized +$31,723 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%60W / 555L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day384.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$136
politics 7% −$135
other 3% −$100
crypto 3% −$60
sports 0% +$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (384 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 615 -68.6% -71.6% 10% 3% -11.0%
≤30d 615 -68.6% -71.6% 10% 3% -11.0%
≤90d 615 -68.6% -71.6% 10% 3% -11.0%
all 615 -68.6% -71.6% 10% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover384.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.6% 3% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -74.3% 1% -19.5%
15% -76.8% 1% -27.3%
20% -79.1% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$31,723
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses60 / 555
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)615 / 213
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$351
Trades / day384.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? No 47¢ 38¢ $47 $38 −$8 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ 93¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+14%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? No 81¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Yes 3¢ 45¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+1412%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-30%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-21%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 100¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+3232%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 63¢ 75¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? No 30¢ 34¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $13 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? No 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Yes 49¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 19¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 11¢ 6¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-46%)
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 82¢ 41¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 459 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.72 · official $198.21 (match) · 3500 history records