Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25f4…ebfa world 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 53L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$20
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$34
other 29% +$3
politics 28% −$1
sports 5% +$9
finance 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 32 -1.8% -11.2% 16% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 48 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -10.0%
all 86 +1.2% -8.4% 38% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -9.8%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage491d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $233 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $130 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $60 −$3 -5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $112 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $124 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $63 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $258 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $112 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $139 −$13 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $169 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $280 +$4 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $133 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $132 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $132 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $136 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $127 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $152 −$12 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $159 −$6 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $303 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $297 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $159 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $160 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $47 −$10 -21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $85 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $178 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $150 +$5 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $168 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $8 −$1 -8%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $547 +$2 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $164 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $55 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,078 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $980 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $138 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,030 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $332 −$2 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $4 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $68 2m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 2m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $109 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $64 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $64 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $23 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $44 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $111 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $112 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $123 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $124 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $63 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $63 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $30 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $71 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $12 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $113 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $80 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $113 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $89 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records