Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

25 0x25ee…69f0 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 666d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage

Total PnL +$12,424 (+11%) realized +$12,427 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR4%break-even

Win rate100%26W / 0L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$3,796per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,569now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$7

7 days+$10

14 days+$10

30 days+$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +4%

net ROI/market (all)-8.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.4%	-9.2%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	4	+0.4%	-9.2%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	4	+0.4%	-9.2%	100%	0%	-9.4%
all	26	+0.8%	-8.8%	100%	4%	+0.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.8%	4%	+0.9%
10% ← realistic here	-17.6%	0%	-8.7%
15%	-25.5%	0%	-17.5%
20%	-32.8%	0%	-25.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$478 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage

Net worth$2,569

Realized+$12,427

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses26 / 0

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions3

Markets (closed)26 / 29

History coverage666d

Avg bet$3,796

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$1,280	$1,277	−$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	No	100¢	100¢	$940	$940	−$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23?	No	100¢	100¢	$351	$352	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$463	+$5	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$2,100	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?	Jun 19	$1,365	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19?	Jun 19	$1,197	+$1	+0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May?	Jun 04	$10	$0	+0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May?	Jun 04	$17	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?	Jun 04	$61	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May?	Jun 04	$69	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?	Jun 04	$72	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May?	Jun 04	$84	$0	+0%
Dogecoin all time high in April?	May 05	$6	$0	+0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April?	May 05	$7	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April?	May 05	$8	$0	+1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April?	May 05	$18	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April?	May 05	$21	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April?	May 05	$22	$0	+0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April?	May 05	$29	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April?	May 05	$39	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April?	May 05	$51	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April?	May 05	$112	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?	Apr 02	$582	+$1	+0%
Will Sergei Syrankov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	Feb 03	$33	$0	+0%
Will Olga Sustanova win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	Feb 03	$49	$0	+0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	Feb 03	$497	+$4	+1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	Jan 21	$577	+$2	+0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Oct 11	$100,011	+$12,405	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23?	BUY No	100¢	$351	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	BUY No	100¢	$940	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,280	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	99¢	$463	24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,100	24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,197	4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,365	4d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?	BUY No	100¢	$72	413d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$84	413d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$69	413d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$61	413d
Will Solana reach $300 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$17	413d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$10	413d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April?	BUY No	100¢	$112	433d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April?	BUY No	100¢	$21	433d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April?	BUY No	99¢	$8	433d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$51	433d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$39	433d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$22	433d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$18	433d
Will Solana reach $300 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$29	433d
Dogecoin all time high in April?	BUY No	100¢	$6	433d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$7	433d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$457	465d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$125	465d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	99¢	$421	517d
Will Sergei Syrankov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY No	100¢	$33	517d
Will Olga Sustanova win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY No	100¢	$49	517d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	99¢	$76	517d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	BUY Yes	100¢	$577	518d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,568.54 · official $2,568.54 (match) · 79 history records