Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
25 0x25ed…369b other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+5%) realized +$92 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$291
crypto 32% −$54
world 12% −$200
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 55% -7.6%
≤30d 11 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 55% -7.6%
≤90d 11 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 55% -7.6%
all 11 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 55% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 55% -7.6%
10% -32.8% 55% -16.4%
15% -39.3% 27% -24.5%
20% -45.2% 18% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$78 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $114 −$57 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$30 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$188 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $223 +$82 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$57 +70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $200 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $122 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $83 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.41 · official $297.41 (match) · 28 history records