Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ed…3e98 sports 1511 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,912 (-8%) realized −$1,890 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%812W / 696L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$342
14 days−$312
30 days−$825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,178
other 11% −$166
crypto 5% −$28
weather 2% −$237
politics 0% −$35
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -28.2% -35.0% 41% 41% -31.8%
≤30d 306 -14.6% -22.8% 49% 47% -20.5%
≤90d 768 -10.3% -18.8% 49% 48% -18.1%
all 1508 -4.9% -14.0% 54% 50% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 50% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -23.8%
15% -29.7% 35% -31.2%
20% -36.6% 29% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$1,890
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses812 / 696
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1508 / 1511
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 51¢ 36¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 26¢ 22¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ 12¢ $18 $3 −$15 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +43%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Arda Güler: 4+ shots Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$14 +106%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +53%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Shea Langeliers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Nick Kurtz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 +$11 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 +$11 +61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$6 +26%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Kamal Deen Sulemana: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $15 +$23 +152%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$98 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 17 $20 +$17 +82%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$9 +139%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 17 $20 +$18 +90%
Bernardo Silva: 2+ shots Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $35 +$28 +78%
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots Jun 17 $12 +$10 +79%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $20 +$21 +104%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$16 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $18 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $6 25h
Arda Güler: 4+ shots BUY Yes 51¢ $6 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL 99¢ $27 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY 47¢ $13 28h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $20 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 28h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 55¢ $18 30h
Shea Langeliers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 30h
Nick Kurtz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 30h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $16 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $13 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Team to Take First Corner SELL Canada 99¢ $34 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $8 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 74¢ $25 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 47¢ $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.48 · official $22.48 (match) · 3500 history records